SPLIT SCREEN (Feb. 11, 2018)

I heard a political commentator say that the Trump administration is like looking at a split screen, the healthy economy on the one side and disaster on the other.  Some say this division is bewildering but there’s nothing bewildering about it. Many imagine that Authoritarian governments take over in one fell   swoop.  This is rarely the case; Authoritarianism takes root over time. Some imagine that Authoritarian governments are free to wholly ignore the will of the people. This is also rarely the case; even in a police state, ready compliance is preferred over mere acquiescence. Take communist-era Czechoslovakia for instance:  It was widely understood that there was an implicit pact between the government and the people. In exchange for subservience 5 days a week Czechs had their cottages to go to on weekends, where they were free to tend their gardens, drink beer with family and friends, and generally exhale without being subject to the demands of the State.

Such pacts did not disappear with the end of the Cold War; they endure to this day.  It is widely recognized, for instance, that both the Chinese and Vietnamese communist regimes have implicit pacts with their respective populations; such that it is believed that either would collapse if it failed to provide the unparalleled wealth their respective citizens have become accustomed to in recent years.

I think it’s fair to say that such an implicit pact exists between Trump and the stock holding class, which aptly serves as proxy for those in 21^st century America wealthy enough to have actual bargaining power.  In late January the stock market began a period of abrupt declines and wild gyrations.  (As always there is virtually no limit to the explanations for why this occurred at this particular time, though no one seems to be talking about the possibility that it is in essence a no confidence vote on a President who may very well soon be indicted.) How long this will last is anyone’s guess.  Should a major crash occur the jig might  well be up for Trump; the pact would be broken. Of course, arguably of greater concern is what happens if the market doesn’t crash?  The pact in the Czech Republic held firm for 40 years.

Of course, (incremental) loss of freedom and autonomy in exchange for prosperity and convenience is a mostly unconscious choice we make for ourselves every day, whether or not an Authoritarian is in power. The consequences of living under an Authoritarian State versus the daily challenges of living in a post-modern Democratic State are for the most part differences of degree, not of kind; that’s why they’re so easy to conflate and explain away.  If an Authoritarian upon assuming power simply announced that black was white and white was black he would run the risk of being deposed or laughed out of office the first day (as Trump nearly was), but if we allow lies to be excused as exaggeration and embellishment, it is only a matter of time before the government can tell us that white is black and black is white and no one will even notice.